Previous | Mortgage tips for first time home buyers Next | Preparing for a recession
February 07, 2023 / Warren Hurt
Annual Big Game Predictor 2023

Annual Big Game Predictor 2023

Once again, it’s time to roll out the much-anticipated Super Bowl Stock Market Forecast. 

As some of you might remember, Robert Stovall, an equity analyst for EF Hutton, published a bizarre statistical anomaly in the mid-1970s. He found that in years where an original NFL franchise won the Super Bowl, the stock market would go up. In years that one of the AFL franchises won, the market would go down. That was fun back in the ’70s when you had 10 to 15 data points. But, after 56 Super Bowls, the anomaly has held up.

man sitting in front of multiple computer screens displaying data chartsThe rule has correctly picked the direction of the market 43 of 56 times (76.8 percent). It has correctly predicted 33 of 40 “up” years (82.5 percent) and 10 of 16 “down” years (62.5 percent).

However, it should come as no surprise that the forecast did not hold up in 2022, which was a uniquely awful year:

  • Inflation was the worst reported in 40 years.
  • We posted two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.
  • The S&P delivered the worst return since the 2008 financial crisis.
  • Bonds returned their worst year since George Washington was President.
  • Crypto lost 50% to 75% of its pretend value.
  • And, most disappointing of all, The Big Game Market Predictor was WRONG!

This year, we are all hoping for a return to normal. The Philadelphia Eagles are an original NFL team and are representing the NFC, and the Kansas City Chiefs are an original AFL team now representing the AFC. So, as painful as it might be for this Steelers fan, this year’s forecast is clear: An Eagles win is positive for the market; a Chiefs win is negative for the market.

So, “Fly, Eagles …”. Nope, I can’t do it.

Warren Hurt is Chief Investment Officer for F&M Trust.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Warren Hurt and F&M Trust do not recommend making investment decisions based upon the outcome of a children’s game played by grown men in February. Financial decisions made relating to the outcome of a children’s game played by grown men in February are not FDIC insured and may (probably will) result in a loss of principal.

Recent Articles
Preparing for a recession
Preparing for a recession

Preparing for a recession

July 10, 2024 / Warren Hurt

The importance of renters’ insurance
The importance of renters’ insurance

The importance of renters’ insurance

July 03, 2024 / Laura Lowry

Teaching children how to budget
Teaching children how to budget

Teaching children how to budget

June 24, 2024 / Danielle Ritter

How to save money at the grocery store
How to save money at the grocery store

How to save money at the grocery store

June 19, 2024 / Lisa Hogue

Turning your hobby into a source of income
Turning your hobby into a source of income

Turning your hobby into a source of income

June 12, 2024 / Kia Treml

Is it time to sell your home?
Is it time to sell your home?

Is it time to sell your home?

June 05, 2024 / Katie Rittel

Seven tips to help you save for vacation
Seven tips to help you save for vacation

Seven tips to help you save for vacation

May 17, 2024 / Megan Witmer

Gig economy offers workers independence
Gig economy offers workers independence

Gig economy offers workers independence

May 14, 2024 / Shelby Yinger

Budgeting for home improvements
Budgeting for home improvements

Budgeting for home improvements

May 09, 2024 / Jenny Madden

Join our e-newsletter

Sign up for our e-newsletter to get new content each month.

NOTICE: YOU ARE LEAVING F&M TRUST!

You are now leaving the F&M Trust website. Links to third-party sites are provided for your convenience. Such sites are not within our control and may not follow the same privacy, security or accessibility standards as ours. F&M Trust neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of the third-party providers, nor is F&M Trust responsible for the security, content or availability of third-party sites, their partners or advertisers.