Once again, it’s time to roll out the much-anticipated Super Bowl Stock Market Forecast. 

As some of you might remember, Robert Stovall, an equity analyst for EF Hutton, published a bizarre statistical anomaly in the mid-1970s. He found that in years where an original NFL franchise won the Super Bowl, the stock market would go up. In the years that one of the AFL franchises won, the market would go down. That was fun back in the ’70s when you had 10 to 15 data points. But, after 59 Super Bowls, the anomaly still holds up, but the recent trend has been less reliable.

The rule has correctly picked the direction of the market 43 of 59 times (73 percent). It has correctly predicted 34 of 43 “up” years (79 percent) and 10 of 16 “down” years (62.5 percent).

However, since Super Bowl 50 its predictive value has diminished significantly. In fact, eight of the last ten stock market years have gone counter to the prediction. This can largely be blamed on two entities, Patrick Mahomes and the New England Patriots. 

Patrick Mahomes will not be making an appearance in the Super Bowl this year, a development many may celebrate, but not investors. The Kansas City Chiefs have appeared in seven Super Bowls dating back to 1967. In every year the Chiefs made the big game, win or lose, the DOW finished positive for the year. The only thing more certain than a positive stock market when the Chiefs appear, is an NFC victory when the Buffalo Bills appear. I say this as a former University of Buffalo student between 1989 and 1993 (look it up, it’s tragic).  

So where does that leave us this year? Technically in a predictive desert. There are no original NFL teams in the big game this year. The NFL merged with the AFL in 1967, the Seahawks did not field a team until 1976, and the Patriots were an original AFL team.

The Patriots hold the record for the most Super Bowl appearances with Sunday’s game making 12. They have won six times with the market finishing higher three of those six years. Seattle has been to the big game three times, only winning once, but the market was positive that year.

So where does that leave us? The last time these two teams met in Super Bowl XLIX, the Patriots won and the Dow was down over 2%. One could argue hoping for a Seahawk victory is the logical choice. Personally, I will be watching the commercials, hoping for the reappearance of the Budweiser frogs or Terry Tate, office linebacker. Unfortunately, I anticipate an E-trade baby Matt Damon, pitching crypto.

Warren Hurt is Chief Investment Officer for F&M Trust.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no evidence that the E-trade baby will be Matt Damon pitching crypto, it could be Ben Afflack selling donuts. Warren Hurt and F&M Trust do not recommend making investment decisions based upon the outcome of a children’s game played by grown men in February. Financial decisions made relating to the outcome of a children’s game played by grown men in February are not FDIC insured and may (probably will) result in a loss of principal.