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February 04, 2024 / Warren Hurt
2024 Annual Big Game Predictor

2024 Annual Big Game Predictor

Once again, it’s time to roll out the much-anticipated Super Bowl stock market forecast.

As some of you might remember, Robert Stovall, an equity analyst for EF Hutton, published a bizarre statistical anomaly in the mid-1970s. He found that in years when an original NFL franchise won the Super Bowl, the stock market would go up. In years that one of the AFL franchises won, the market would go down. That was fun back in the ’70s when you had 10 to 15 data points. But, after 57 Super Bowls, the anomaly still holds up, despite the recent trend being less reliable.

The rule has correctly picked the direction of the market 43 of 57 times (75.4 percent). It has correctly predicted 33 of 41 “up” years (80.5 percent) and 10 of 16 “down” years (62.5 percent). However, since Super Bowl 50, it’s predictive value has diminished significantly. In fact, five of the last seven stock market years have gone counter to the prediction.A graphic of a man watching multiple screens with different graphs on them, with a football on the desk beside him.

This year, we are all hoping for a return to normal. The San Francisco 49ers are an original NFL team and
 are representing the NFC, and the Kansas City Chiefs are an original AFL team now representing the AFC. So, for the predictor to get back on track and the market to deliver a positive return, investors should hope for a San Francisco victory.

Just as the stock market has a derivatives market, the legalization of sports betting has created a sports betting derivative – the prop bet market. Potential bets to consider:

  • San Francisco 49ers to win: -2.5 points – Prediction: 49ers win by three.
  • Travis Kelce TD: Over/Under 0.5 – Take the Over.
  • Brock Purdy INT: Over/Under 0.5 – Take the Over.
  • Taylor Swift on TV: Over/Under 5.5 times – Take the Over (covered by half).
  • Probability Taylor Swift dumps Travis Kelce and runs off with “Jake from State Farm”: Over/Under 0.5 – Take the under (Taylor’s not like that).

 

Warren Hurt is Chief Investment Officer for F&M Trust.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no evidence that Taylor Swift knows “Jake from State Farm”. Warren Hurt and F&M Trust do not condone sports betting or recommend making investment decisions based upon the outcome of a children’s game played by grown men in February. Financial decisions made relating to the outcome of a children’s game played by grown men in February are not FDIC insured and may (probably will) result in a loss of principal.

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